Since November, with the economic data confirming that the economy continues to be better in the short term, the default of credit bond set triggered liquidity impact, market pessimism intensified, and treasury bond futures hit a new low. Overall, after the liquidity shock, the bond market has the opportunity to rebound.
The pressure of the short-term credit market eased, which was beneficial to interest rate bonds. On November 21, the 43rd meeting of the financial committee was held to study and standardize the development of the bond market and maintain the stability of the bond market. The meeting pointed out that we should uphold the “zero tolerance” attitude and maintain market fairness and order. We should strictly investigate and deal with all kinds of illegal acts such as fraudulent issuance, false information disclosure, malicious transfer of assets and misappropriation of issuance funds in accordance with the law, severely punish all kinds of “evasion and cancellation of debts” and protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors. This statement will undoubtedly ease the market’s concerns about the aggravation of default in the credit bond market. In terms of specific measures, liquidity will be increased in the short term to mitigate the liquidity risk caused by credit risk in the market, which is good for interest rate bonds. We believe that this can avoid the further spread and spread of credit risk in the short term, which will have a greater impact on the financial market. In the medium term, whether the default risk of the credit bond market can be reduced or not depends on the improvement of the economy and the credit qualification of enterprises. As a matter of fact, the recent default of credit bonds does have the fact that the industry is depressed and the credit qualification is deteriorating, which can not be completely attributed to malicious default. Since this round of epidemic, the macro leverage ratio of each subject has increased significantly. spark global Once the policy starts to withdraw next year, the default pressure of enterprises may increase, so it is not optimistic that the credit risk will be eased. If the increase of credit risk does not cause liquidity risk, the environment of interest rate bond will be more favorable.
While the economy continues to rise, worries are also worth paying attention to. Economic data showed that industrial production continued to grow at a high level, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value remained at a high level of 6.9% in October. High frequency data such as blast furnace start-up, crude steel output and automobile tire are also reflected. Investment restoration is the main driving force of this round of industrial production expansion. The substantial rebound in completion and a small rebound in construction started to maintain a strong real estate investment, with a year-on-year growth of 12.7%. The investment in infrastructure and manufacturing industry also returned to the rising channel, exceeding the market expectation to a certain extent. At the same time, there are some negative factors worthy of attention. As for investment, real estate is restricted by the “three red lines”, real estate sales and land purchase have shown weakness, and the probability of real estate investment at the end of the year is weak. In terms of infrastructure construction, the special bonds were issued at the end of October, and the support rate for infrastructure investment has weakened. In addition, China’s industrial production has basically returned to the pre epidemic level. The main factors restricting the recovery of the economy are demand, especially the consumption demand for services. On the whole, it is difficult for the follow-up economic rate to maintain the recovery momentum.
The weekly issuance of government bonds reached a record low and supply pressure continued to ease. According to wind statistics, in the third week of November, a total of 59.67 billion yuan of local bonds were issued, and the net issuance of local bonds was – 10.36 billion yuan. In terms of classification, the newly issued new bonds included 26.3 billion yuan of new and old general bonds and 33.37 billion yuan of new and old special bonds. In the third week of November, a total of 224.06 billion yuan of treasury bonds were issued, with a net issuance of 179.62 billion yuan. In the third week of November, a total of 62.5 billion yuan of government financial bonds were issued, with a net issuance of – 2.5 billion yuan, compared with 76.76 billion yuan in the previous week. In the fourth week of November, local bonds are expected to issue 420 million yuan. There is only one loan to repay the old and new general debt of 420 million yuan to be issued. The net issuance of local bonds was – 44.38 billion yuan. Treasury bonds are expected to issue 0 billion yuan, and the net issuance of treasury bonds will be – 30.05 billion yuan. In the fourth week of November, the government financial bonds are expected to issue 0 billion yuan, and the net issuance of government financial bonds is – 7 billion yuan. Overall, the supply pressure of interest rate bonds at the end of the year has further eased.
The central bank released liquidity again to maintain stability. After the default of Yongmei, the credit bonds plummeted. At the beginning of last week, the market predicted that the central bank would immediately rescue the state-owned enterprise belief. However, what we saw last week was that the central bank extended MLF in excess on Monday. However, from Tuesday, the central bank began to gradually withdraw funds, and the net withdrawal of maturity funds of reverse repurchase was 250 billion yuan, indicating that the central bank has no intention to put too much liquidity into the market. According to the past logic, in the stage of concentrated default of credit bonds, in order to alleviate the liquidity shock, the central bank will never withdraw funds. The central bank’s bond market continued to fall. Fortunately, after the CFA set the default of centralized credit at the end of last week, the central bank continued to release a small amount of net funds this week, which is another continuous injection of liquidity to the market after a week. Market pessimism further eased, short-term bond market oversold rebound is expected to continue.
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